A perfect storm is
brewing for Israel. After years of counterproductive concessions, if the
Jews wish to preserve their sovereignty, what is required is ruthless
resolve, not reticent restraint.
Border Police officers patrol Temple Mount.
(photo credit:REUTERS)
We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. – Winston Churchill, in first speech to the House of Commons as prime minister, May 13, 1940 A
military defeat of Israel would mean the physical extinction of a
large part of its population and the political elimination of the
Jewish state... Nor does this reflect a historical trauma...To lose a
single war is to lose everything...
– Yigal Allon, then foreign minister, in Foreign Affairs, October 1976 This
is not an article for those of weak stomach. It is not for those who
wish to be reassured that, in the end, things will be “okay.” It offers
no glimmer of optimism, nor any comforting prospect of some happy
ending.
Indeed, if the Jews are to preserve their political
sovereignty, all it bodes for the foreseeable future is one of
Churchillian “blood, toil, tears and sweat.”
A perfect storm brewing A
perfect storm is brewing for Israel. On virtually every front, ominous
clouds are gathering, and should the menacing maelstroms they portend
hit together, it is far from certain that the Jewish state will survive
the destructiveness of their combined impact.
Since I began
writing this Into the Fray series in mid- 2011, I have warned
repeatedly of the perils of the government’s policy of
counterproductive compromises and concessions. I cautioned that this
“cavalcade of capitulation” will elicit nothing from our adversaries
other than demands for more – and more far-reaching – concessions, as
indeed it has.
In my column of December 2, 2011, I wrote: “By
adopting a policy of continually trying to avoid confrontations in
which it can prevail, Israel may eventually find itself forced to
engage in a confrontation in which it cannot.”
Precisely such a perilous predicament is now beginning to develop before our eyes.
Across
every border Israel shares with its Arab neighbors, within its own
borders, and far removed from them, a formidable range of threats – from
damaging economic sanctions and international isolation, through
murderous terrorist attacks, jihadi insurgency and domestic
insurrection, to the specter of weapons of mass destruction and a
nuclear Iran – is coalescing with disturbing speed into a multi-faceted
menace that jeopardizes the survival of the Jewish nation-state to a
degree arguably unprecedented since its inception.
Misreading the battlefield Successive
governments have consistently misread the battlefield, and misled by
the seductive deception of political correctness, they have embraced
misguided policy principles, wildly at odds with the dictates of
political realities.
To understand this rather harsh
condemnation, it is first necessary to realize that, in principle, there
exist two archetypal and antithetical contexts of conflict – in the
first of which a policy of compromise and concession may well be
appropriate, and another, in which such a course is disastrously
inappropriate.
In the first of such contexts, one’s adversary
interprets any concession as a genuine conciliatory initiative, and
feels obliged to respond with a counter-concession. In this context,
the process will move toward some amicable resolution of the conflict
by a series of concessions and counter-concessions.
In the
alternate conflictual context, however, one’s adversary does not
interpret concessionary initiatives as conciliatory gestures, made in
good faith, but as an indication of vulnerability and weakness, made
under duress, portending defeat.
Such initiatives will not elicit any reciprocal conciliatory gesture, but rather demands for further concessions.
If
one concedes to the demands, instead of enjoying a convergent process
that leads toward peaceable resolution of differences, a divergent
process will lead either to capitulation or to large-scale violence. In
other words, once one side realizes that its adversary is acting in
bad faith and can only be restrained by force; or the other side
realizes it has extracted all the concessions it can by non-coercive
means – meaning that further gains could only be won by force –
problems worsen for the party seeking bilateral satisfaction.
‘... if you will not fight when victory is sure’ If
one happens to be in a situation that approximates the second context,
but adopts a policy suited for the first, disaster is inevitable.
Sadly,
for more than two decades, this is precisely what Israeli governments –
with varying degrees of myopic zeal and/or reluctant resignation –
have done. Unless robust and resolute remedial measures are undertaken
without delay, such disaster is inevitable.
There can be little
doubt that the Arab-Israeli conflict resembles the second context far
more closely than the first. After all, every gut-wrenching concession
Israel has made since the early 1990s has failed to produce any
conciliatory response from its Arab adversaries. All it finds is
greater intransigence and more obdurate insistence on further
appeasement.
Because of excessive restraint and inadequate
resolve, Israel is inexorably descending into an abysmal position,
depicted with forceful eloquence by Winston Churchill, in the sober
caveat he articulated in the first volume of his epic series on World
War II, aptly titled The Gathering Storm.
He warned: “If you
will not fight for right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if
you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you
may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds
against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be
a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory,
because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.”
‘... physical extinction and political elimination...’ Although
many will wish to deny it, this is the situation that could well
emerge for the Jews of Israel if the policy of ruinous restraint
continues. If they forfeit national sovereignty, now under
unprecedented international assault, while they may not become
“slaves,” Israelis could well be relegated to infidel dhimmi status in
their own homeland.
Israel’s past military and economic
successes have been so stunning that they have obscured the true
precariousness of Jewish political independence in the region.
For
those who have been lulled into a false sense of complacency by highly
visible signs of strength and vigor – such as mushrooming high-rises
and modernistic freeways – the somber assessment of the inherent
asymmetry of the conflict and the fragility of Jewish national
existence made by Yigal Allon in the prestigious publication Foreign
Affairs should be a salutary reminder.
Considered by many the
epitome of moderate statesmanship, Allon cautioned: “... a military
defeat of Israel would mean the physical extinction of a large part of
its population and the political elimination of the Jewish state. ...
the Arab states can permit themselves a series of military defeats
while Israel cannot afford to lose a single war. Nor does this reflect a
[finite, hence bearable] historical trauma in any sense.
To lose a single war is to lose everything....”
Ruinous results of restraint & retreat The bitter fruits of Israeli restraint, retreat and reticence abound in every direction and on every front.
In
some cases they are close to full ripeness, in others, to less so – so
far. In some cases disaster is close at hand, in others it has been
avoided – or rather, delayed – more by propitious good fortune than by
prudent good judgment.
In the north, the IDF’s unilateral
flight, ordered by Ehud Barak in 2000, delivered South Lebanon – and
abandoned Israel’s mainly Christian allies – to Hezbollah, which
transformed it into a formidable arsenal of rockets that rained death
and destruction on millions of Israelis for five long weeks this
summer. The hesitant mismanagement of the 2006 Second Lebanese war by
Ehud Olmert’s government allowed the outnumbered and out-gunned
Hezbollah to claim – not implausibly – strategic victory over (or at
least, non-defeat by) the IDF.
The abysmal UN Security Council
Resolution 1701, ushered in by the hopelessly inept Tzipi Livni,
then-foreign minister, allowed the region to become an even more
menacing arsenal, bristling with tens of thousands of even more deadly
missiles – and attack tunnels reportedly being excavated under the
border.
It was only by the grace of God – or good fortune,
depending on one’s proclivities – that, during Operation Protective
Edge in Gaza earlier this year, Hezbollah was preoccupied with the
civil war in Syria. Consequently, it could not open up a second front
and bring the full weight of this arsenal (and those tunnels) to bear
on Israel, which could have overwhelmed the protective capacity of the
Iron Dome defense system.
Concessions more dangerous than ever It
would be foolhardy indeed to assume that this fortuitous circumstance
is likely to reoccur in any future engagement. In fact, only 10 days
after the end of Protective Edge, the IDF announced that it was “making
plans and training” for “a very violent war” against Hezbollah, which,
according to informed sources, had “now accumulated three years of
battlefield experience, greater military capabilities and considerable
confidence.”
Slightly to the east, the breathtaking barbarity of
the Syrian civil war rages on, bringing the daunting prospect of a
common border with Islamic State and/or al-Qaida affiliates, and
underscoring how imbecilic it would have been to relinquish the Golan
to the murderous Assad regime, in the forlorn hope of trading
land-for-peace.
Along Israel’s eastern border, with the
ascendancy of Islamist elements in Jordan, the Hashemite monarchy is
looking increasingly wobbly. This tenuous situation is exacerbated by
the hordes of refugees (reportedly over 600,000) fleeing the brutality
in Syria, presumably infiltrated by Islamist agitators, who are placing
unbearable strains on Jordan’s social and economic resources, and
undermining the stability of the regime. With the possibility of the
monarchy being replaced by radical Muslim elements, or even remaining
as a puppet regime controlled by them, the notion of territorial
concessions in Judea-Samaria, which adjoins the kingdom to the West,
becomes even more dangerously delusional than before.
Vast stretch of Islamist-controlled land Even
if some flimsy deal were struck with the largely irrelevant and
unrepresentative Mahmoud Abbas, the responsible assumption must be that
he would be replaced, post haste, by more extremist forces such as
Hamas (as per the Gaza precedent) – or worse.
Israel would be
faced with the perilous prospect of a vast, unbroken stretch of
Islamist-controlled territory, from the eastern approaches of Greater
Tel Aviv to Jordan’s current border with Iraq, and beyond – into areas
under the iron rule of Islamic State.
In Sinai as well, the
outlook is bleak, with the peninsula falling under the sway of jihadist
elements which the Egyptian army is finding increasingly difficult to
curb.
One of the most dangerous militant groups active in Sinai,
Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, recently pledged allegiance to Islamic State, a
link likely to afford it more money, weapons and recruits to fight the
government in Cairo.
All this savagery will inevitably press on
Israel’s long southern border stretching from Gaza to the Red Sea. If
rocket attacks on Eilat continue, tourism to the city will cease and it
will lose its principal source of income, without which its very
existence is in grave doubt.
On the cusp of carnage? As
daunting as the preceding catalogue of dangers is, it is hardly an
exhaustive list of the perils facing the Jewish state today. Not a word
has been mentioned about the possibility of a third intifada on the
part of the Palestinians in Judea-Samaria or a renewed conflagration in
Gaza. Perhaps the gravest threat of all is the prospect of
insurrection and revolt by the Arab citizens of Israel – if they sense
weakness and vacillation on the part of the Jews.
This threat
will materialize unless the Arabs are convinced the Jews will not brook
any challenge – from within Israel’s borders or from without – to
their national sovereignty and political independence.
After
years of counterproductive concessions and compromise, it is unlikely
that the situation is still retrievable by consensual means, and
remedial measures will require coercive action on a wide scale.
What is called for today is not a repetition of reticent restraint, but the demonstration of ruthless resolve.
Unless
the Jews convey the unequivocal message that any such challenge to
their sovereignty will be met with overwhelming lethal force, they will
increasingly be the victims of such force at the hands of their Arab
adversaries.
Martin Sherman (www.martinsherman.org) is the founder and executive director of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies.